I quickly noticed on Tuesday how the local Philadelphia media outlets made 4 degrees vanish from the forecast highs for Tuesday. With a cloud layer at 12,000 feet and early morning rain I knew it would not make it to the forecasted high of 88 but they left their numbers as-is until around lunch when the numbers changed. How predictable…
But who else notices this? From the 11PM air-time to the next morning, the numbers change. Sure, weather is dynamic but those who accurately forecast temperatures should be cited and applauded.
Introducing…the first installment of "Weather Umpire." That's right - the weather umpire is watching. The goal is to track the local weather sites in an effort to grade them. How?
By recording the 11PM forecast highs/lows, documenting, and scoring. No more vanishing numbers with the weather umpire!
We have you recorded for the first chance at a heat wave seen here.
Here is how it works – for each degree off of the official high/low temperature to the 11PM forecast, one point is given. The station with the lowest score wins. Grading for 2 days out is given based upon the 11PM published forecasts.
This will be done for weather events such as snow storms (accumulations), rain totals, and heat waves. Who knows where this could lead. Grades will be published Friday with an update tomorrow. The winning station will be announced and crowned Weather Umpire’s pick of the week. Good luck to each of you!
Looking long range, this could be the hottest 2 days of the rest of June into July. Cool down coming.
Tom Bartman
1:18 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
NBC10 and Fox29 are in the lead so far... And remember NBC10 was the first to forecast 100 for Thursday. I'll pull the charts in after the 11PM broadcast.
Tom Bartman
1:18 pm on Thursday, June 21, 2012
Update: 6ABC, FOX29, and NBC10 are all tied at one point. CBS3 is in the bottom with 4 points having missed yesterday’s high temperature by 4 degrees.
But there must be a winner after today based on the spreads by these 3 stations in a tie.
Adjustments to today’s forecasted high from 24 hours ago:
CBS3: 2
6ABC: 0
FOX29: 0
NBC10: 0
It is interesting to note that CBS not only had the biggest miss of 4 degrees, but also is the only station with an adjustment to today’s forecast high. It is also noteworthy that NBC10 was the first to forecast 100 for today’s high – and not deviate from it 24 hours later.
Today’s forecast high screen shots from each station seen here:
http://www.threatcore.com/img/wr-06-20-2012-11pm.jpg
Tom Bartman
1:32 pm on Friday, June 22, 2012
Update: http://www.threatcore.com/img/wr-06-22-2012-11pm.jpg
Fox 29 leads with only 2 degrees off the official highs from 3 days ago. One day to go... The winner will be announced later today.
Tom Bartman
8:51 am on Monday, June 25, 2012
With a high of 95 today the 3 day heat wave comes to an end and that means we have RESULTS!
FOX29 wins for accuracy from 3 days out. They were only 4 degrees off out of the 3 day high temperature forecasts. NBC10 was runner up with 5 points. CBS3 and 6ABC ended at the bottom with 6 points. Congrats to Fox who is crowned the weather umpire pick of the week.
FOX29 4
NBC10 5
CBS3 6
6ABC 6